Leading the Way

The major sources of anthropogenic carbon emissions globally are lime calcination (primarily through the manufacture of cement), deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels.

The production of cement is responsible for about 5 percent of total, man-made carbon emissions. The cement industry is working on improving energy efficiency while increasingly using substitute materials in the production of cement that do not release large amounts of carbon dioxide. At the same time, builders are increasingly specifying usage of alternative materials in cement, which is also helping to bring emissions down. This source of carbon emissions will continue to shrink as technology advances.

Deforestation, the net loss of forests worldwide, is responsible for approximately 12 percent of carbon emissions; however, the rate of deforestation has slowed significantly over the last several decades. This slowing is due to the increasing awareness of damage to the planet through mismanaging forests, and the growing demand for wood products that have been harvested from sustainably managed forests.

Many countries are now planting more trees than they are harvesting, including India, United States, Brazil, Russia, China, Vietnam and Mexico to name just a few. One recent projection suggests that at current rates, total global forest area will actually increase by 2050. Others suggest that forest cover will still be declining, but at an ever increasingly slower rate. Global partners need to work to ensure that progress continues to be made in this area by specifying only wood products certified as harvested from sustainably managed forests.

However, the much larger threat is the refining and burning of fossil fuels. Fortunately, it is a threat that mankind can control.

The refining and the burning of fossil fuels are both the major sources of carbon dioxide emissions and the sources that most need to be addressed: the burning of coal, oil and gas are the principle emitters of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, and the building industry is the principle user. Renewable energy sources now account for about 17 percent of energy generation in the U.S., and, similarly, about 18 percent globally (as of 2016). Renewables accounted for about 68 percent of all new power-generating capacity globally in 2017; about 43 percent of all new power generation in the US.

According to the U.S Green Building Council, green buildings reduce energy use from 24 percent to 50 percent, and carbon dioxide emissions from 33 percent to 39 percent. The International Energy Agency projects that on average, buildings in 2040 could be nearly 40 percent more energy efficient than today. These numbers are conservative; reductions in energy use and carbon emissions in buildings of from 50 percent to 65 percent are not unreasonable, or uncommon.

Technology is evolving rapidly. Forty percent of all commercial properties in the U.S. now benchmark with Energy Star, and according to the Environmental Protection Agency, 84 percent of all buildings that benchmark implement energy conservation measures. By 2021, in the U.S., green building activity is expected to grow, with those developers who build the majority of their projects with green methods and products increasing from 32 percent to 45 percent. That’s just two years away.

This is in part driven by concern for the planet and corporate image, but as has been pointed out repeatedly in this publication, as well as in many others, when undertaken carefully, operating buildings sustainably actually reduces operating costs, with average payback less than two years, which is an acceptable return on investment for most owners.

While buildings are operating more efficiently, the power that is the source of this energy is increasingly clean and renewable. For example, in 2017, 33 percent of PG&E’s electricity came from renewable resources, including solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and small hydroelectric sources. Also, 78.8 percent of PG&E's total electric power mix is from GHG-free sources, including nuclear, large hydro and renewable sources of energy. PG&E is the principle energy utility in Northern and Central California.

Since 2010, the share of global solar energy has increased by an average of more than 50 percent per year, and it is accelerating. In 2016, 39 percent of all new electricity generation was solar, more than any other source.

In 2017, solar generated just 2.09 percent of global power, however, that was a 95 percent increase over the previous year.

China lead the world in solar photovoltaics generation, with the total installed capacity exceeding 100GW as of the end of 2017. Germany, Japan, and the U.S. follow in that order; the US now has more than 50GW of installed capacity.

A report by research and publishing firm Clean Edge and the nonprofit Co-op America found solar power contribution could provide 10 percent of total power needs by 2025. Solar power is expected to become the world's largest source of electricity by 2050, providing a projected 27 percent of total global consumption.

CALGreen, or the California Green Building Standards Code, is the first statewide "green" building code in the U.S. California is also requiring all buildings more than 50,000 sf to benchmark with Energy Star and disclose annual energy consumption. In the U.S., 13 states and 16 cities now have benchmarking policies and many more are in the process of developing their own.

The California Public Utilities Commission has set as its goal to have all new residential buildings be Zero Net Energy by 2020, and all new commercial buildings ZNE by 2030. That is, all new buildings will have to generate on-site and off-, through clean, sustainable means, as much energy as they use.

In addition, California has set a goal of 50 percent of existing commercial buildings to be retrofitted to ZNE by 2030; and 50 percent of new major renovations in state buildings to be ZNE by 2025.

As of May 2019, the New Building Institute database shows 580 buildings that are either certified, verified, or emerging ZNE projects, a 700 percent increase since 2010.

Progress in the building industry are happening so fast, most of the public is not even aware of them, and building owners and managers must run to keep up.

Outside the building industry, things are evolving just as quickly. In 2010, annual global sales of electric vehicles passed the 100,000 mark. A relatively modest, but significant benchmark. In 2017 global plug-in sales passed 3 million units. Sales of electric vehicles achieved a 1.3 percent market share of new car sales in 2017. This is a small percentage, but significant that it is up from 0.86 percent in 2016 and 0.62 percent in 2015. US sales of electric vehicles grew an average of 32 percent annually from 2012-2016 and 45 percent over the year ending June 2017.

The government of India has proposed that all new vehicles coming onto its roads be electric by 2030.

Chinese consumers are on track to buy more than 1 million electric vehicles (EVs) this year after sales grew 53 percent in 2017. China’s leadership has set a goal of 2 million annual EV sales by 2020 and a complete ban on internal-combustion engines projected by 2040.

Industry is making similar advances in using energy more efficiently and in developing advanced technologies that reduce emissions even more.

Globally, there are tremendous advances in conserving energy use and using cleaner sources of energy. Society is rapidly advancing into a new era of operating efficiency and usage of clean, renewable energy, and soon, a Zero Net Energy World. Based on current trends, within 25 years, most of the world’s electricity will come from clean, sustainable sources, and most cars will be electric and autonomous. While society will still be dealing with the effects of climate change, it will no longer be contributing significantly to it.

• Buildings are positioned to have an enormous impact on the environment and climate change. At 41 percent of total U.S. energy consumption, buildings out-consume the industrial (30 percent) and transportation (29 percent) sectors.

• In the United States alone, buildings account for almost 40 percent of national carbon dioxide emissions and out-consume both the industrial and transportation sectors, but LEED-certified buildings have 34 percent lower carbon dioxide emissions, consume 25 percent less energy and 11 percent less water, and have diverted more than 80 million tons of waste from landfills.